Chile could install between 27 GW and 58 GW of new فتوولتائیک capacity over the next 30 years, according to the Ministry of Energy’s گزارش مقدماتی برنامهریزی بلندمدت انرژی (PELP) 2028-2032.
The range covers five different scenarios featured in the report that are influenced by differing trajectories of economic growth, fuel costs, technological evolution, and energy policies. The model is based on an existing solar capacity of 12,015 MW, covering both large-scale plants and small distributed generation facilities. An additional 490 MW of installations under the net billing scheme are also included, directly deducted from the demand in the modeling.
The projections included in the report will serve as input toward the annual transmission expansion plans prepared by the country’s National Energy Commission. The document also projects an expansion of between 16 GW and 27 GW of onshore wind energy.
Northern solar power is expanding along with batteries
Across all five scenarios, the optimal expansion of the National Electric System relies primarily on new photovoltaic solar energy in the north of the country and on land-based wind farms in the Maule and Biobío regions in central-southern Chile.
Photovoltaic development appears to be associated with the incorporation of battery energy storage systems, especially in scenarios that contemplate higher fossil fuel prices, the retirement of coal-fired power plants and the inclusion of a carbon dioxide tax in the variable costs of generation.
The model uses as a starting point 4,078 MW of BESS systems installed or under construction by the end of 2026, with an average storage duration of 4.3 hours. Most of this capacity is located in the north: 56% in Antofagasta, 15% in Atacama and another 15% in Tarapacá.
The report identifies a need for longer-lasting storage systems for new investments. Several scenarios in the report include six- and eight-hour solutions as a significant portion of the expansion, due to the need to shift solar generation to nighttime hours and provide flexibility during periods of lower solar irradiance.
Batteries are the only storage technology that the model incorporates as new capacity during the planning horizon, with no expansion of pumped hydro storage, thermal storage, or other emerging technologies included.
The report also analyzes offshore wind energy for the first time. This technology is developed in three of the five scenarios, provided its costs register a medium or favorable reduction. Its earliest implementation occurs in 2041, while in other scenarios it appears from 2048 onwards.
Towards the end of the projected timeframe, at least 83% of annual electricity generation would come from solar photovoltaic or wind power. Renewable curtailments would account for between 9% and 12% of generation, compared to the 7% used as a baseline for the current situation.
Transmission reinforcements at 500 kV and 220 kV
The expansion of renewable energy will require new investments in transmission. The report identifies the need to increase the capacity of the Charrúa-Ancoa-Alto Jahuel-Lo Aguirre corridor by at least 1,750 MVA, at 500 kV. This reinforcement would allow wind power generation to be transported from the south-central region to the main consumption areas and to the north, via the future Kimal-Lo Aguirre line.
The plan also includes expansions of Chile’s 220 kV networks. Some lines would need to increase their current capacity up to six times in all the scenarios studied. The greatest needs are concentrated in the Antofagasta and Maule regions in north-central Chile.
Energy demand increases by up to 47.8%
The scenarios project national energy demand growth of between 4.1% and 47.8% during the analyzed period. The outcome depends primarily on the evolution of the gross domestic product and the degree of electrification of the economy.
Transportation remains the largest energy consumer, while regulatory scenarios anticipate increased adoption of electric cars, taxis, and buses, as well as the use of hydrogen in heavy transport.
Mining and industry are also increasing their electricity consumption, while data centers are emerging as a new structural source of demand. The report estimates data center capacity at 198 MW in 2024, which could reach approximately 594 MW in 2030 and 900 MW in 2057.
Individuals and institutions registered in the PELP process may submit comments on the report until August 24. The ministry will then prepare a final report and, after a further review, the corresponding energy planning decree.
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